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Megaprojecten

door M&C

Intreerede van prof.dr. B. Flyvbjerg: "Truth and lies about megaprojects"

Prof.dr. B. Flyvbjerg | Faculteit Techniek, Bestuur en Management

Truth and lies about megaprojects
In his speech, Bent Flyvbjerg will first argue that a major problem in megaproject policy and planning is the high level of misinformation about costs and benefits that decision makers face in decid­ing whether to build or not, and the high risks such misinformation generates. A consequence of misinformation is massive cost overruns, benefit shortfalls, and waste.

Second, Flyvbjerg will explore the causes of misinformation and risk, mainly in the guise of optimism bias and strategic misrepresentation. Here he finds an inverted Darwinism for megaprojects with "survival of the unfittest," that is, it is often not the best projects that are built, but the most misrepresented ones, those looking best on paper but performing worst in reality.

Third, Flyvbjerg will present a number of measures aimed at better policy and planning, including changed governance structures and better planning methods. Better methods include a new forecasting tool called reference class forecasting, which was used in the Netherlands for the first time in 2006 in forecasting cost and patronage for the proposed Zuiderzee Line high-speed rail project.

Finally, Flyvbjerg will identify the most promising areas for further research, of which one is studies of the Dutch situation. There is no systematic knowledge today of cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in Dutch transport infrastructure projects, which is surprising given the fact that the Netherlands probably have more infrastructure per square kilometer than most other European nations. Flyvbjerg also sees studies of whether private provision of infrastructure is more effective than public provision as a particularly important area for further research, especially because globally private capital funds, banks, and pension funds have recently been flocking to invest in infrastructure to a degree where analysts have begun to speak of an "infrastructure investment bubble."