Publications

2018

Hoch, J. M., van Beek, R., Winsemius, H. C. and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Benchmarking flexible meshes and regular grids for large-scale fluvial inundation modelling, Adv. Water Resour., 121, 350–360, doi:10.1016/J.ADVWATRES.2018.09.003, 2018.

Bernhofen, M. V., Whyman, C., Trigg, M. A., Sleigh, A., Smith, A., Sampson, C., Yamazaki, D., Ward, P. J., Rudari, R., Pappenberger, F., Dottori, F., Salamon, P. and Winsemius, H.: A first collective validation of global fluvial flood models for major floods in Nigeria and Mozambique, Environ. Res. Lett., doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae014, 2018.

Ward, P. J., Couasnon, A., Eilander, D., Haigh, I. D., Hendry, A., Muis, S., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Winsemius, H. C. and Wahl, T.: Dependence between high sea-level and high river discharge increases flood hazard in global deltas and estuaries, Environ. Res. Lett., 13(8), 084012, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aad400, 2018.

Wahl, T., Ward, P., Winsemius, H., AghaKouchak, A., Bender, J., Haigh, I., Jain, S., Leonard, M., Veldkamp, T. and Westra, S.: When Environmental Forces Collide, Eos (Washington. DC)., 99, doi:10.1029/2018EO099745, 2018.

Winsemius, H. C., Jongman, B., Veldkamp, T. I. E., Hallegatte, S., Bangalore, M. and Ward, P. J.: Disaster risk, climate change, and poverty: assessing the global exposure of poor people to floods and droughts, Environ. Dev. Econ., 1–21, doi:10.1017/S1355770X17000444, 2018.

2017

Hoch, J. M., Neal, J. C., Baart, F., Van Beek, R., Winsemius, H. C., Bates, P. D. and Bierkens, M. F. P.: GLOFRIM v1.0-A globally applicable computational framework for integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic modelling, Geosci. Model Dev., 10(10), doi:10.5194/gmd-10-3913-2017, 2017.

Ikeuchi, H., Hirabayashi, Y., Yamazaki, D., Muis, S., Ward, P. J., Winsemius, H. C., Verlaan, M. and Kanae, S.: Compound simulation of fluvial floods and storm surges in a global coupled river-coast flood model: Model development and its application to 2007 Cyclone Sidr in Bangladesh, J. Adv. Model. Earth Syst., 9(4), doi:10.1002/2017MS000943, 2017.

Candogan Yossef, N., Van Beek, R., Weerts, A., Winsemius, H. and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Skill of a global forecasting system in seasonal ensemble streamflow prediction, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21(8), doi:10.5194/hess-21-4103-2017, 2017.

Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Bates, P. D., Botzen, W. J. W., Diaz Loaiza, A., Hallegatte, S., Kind, J. M., Kwadijk, J., Scussolini, P. and Winsemius, H. C.: A global framework for future costs and benefits of river-flood protection in urban areas, Nat. Clim. Chang., [online] Available from: dx.doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3350, 2017.

Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Nicholls, R. J., Brown, S., Hinkel, J., Lincke, D., Vafeidis, A. T., Scussolini, P., Winsemius, H. C. and Ward, P. J.: A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure, Earth’s Futur., doi:10.1002/2016EF000430, 2017.

Hoch, J. M., Haag, A. V., van Dam, A., Winsemius, H. C., van Beek, L. P. H. and Bierkens, M. F. P.: Assessing the impact of hydrodynamics on large-scale flood wave propagation - a case study for the Amazon Basin, Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 21(1), 117–132, doi:10.5194/hess-21-117-2017, 2017.

Iliffe, M., Goulding, J. and Winsemius, H. C.: Towards a Conceptual Framework for Participatory Mapping in Developing Countries, in GISRUK 2017, Manchester., 2017.

Murnane, R. J., Daniell, J. E., Schäfer, A. M., Ward, P. J., Winsemius, H. C., Simpson, A., Tijssen, A. and Toro, J.: Future scenarios for earthquake and flood risk in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Earth’s Futur., doi:10.1002/2016EF000481, 2017.

2016

Donchyts, G., Baart, F., Winsemius, H., Gorelick, N., Kwadijk, J., & van de Giesen, N. (2016). Earth’s surface water change over the past 30 years. Nature Climate Change, 6(9), 810–813. doi.org/10.1038/nclimate3111

Muis, S., Verlaan, M., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). A global reanalysis of storm surges and extreme sea levels. Nature Communications, 7, 11969. doi.org/10.1038/ncomms11969

Scussolini, P., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Jongman, B., Bouwer, L. M., Winsemius, H. C., de Moel, H., & Ward, P. J. (2016). FLOPROS: an evolving global database of flood protection standards. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 16(5), 1049–1061. doi.org/10.5194/nhess-16-1049-2016

Donchyts, G., Schellekens, J., Winsemius, H., Eisemann, E. and van de Giesen, N.: A 30 m resolution surfacewater mask including estimation of positional and thematic differences using landsat 8, SRTM and OPenStreetMap: A case study in the Murray-Darling basin, Australia, Remote Sens., 8(5), doi:10.3390/rs8050386, 2016.

de Boer-Euser, T., McMillan, H. K., Hrachowitz, M., Winsemius, H. C., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2016). Influence of soil and climate on root zone storage capacity. Water Resources Research, 52(3), 2009–2024. doi.org/10.1002/2015WR018115

Trigg, M. A., Birch, C. E., Neal, J. C., Bates, P. D., Smith, A., Sampson, C. C., Yamazaki, D., Hirabayashi, Y., Pappenberger, F., Dutra, E., Ward, P. J., Winsemius, H. C., Salamon, P., Dottori, F., Rudari, R., Kappes, M. S., Simpson, A. L., Hadzilacos, G. and Fewtrell, T. J.: The credibility challenge for global fluvial flood risk analysis, Environ. Res. Lett., 11(9), 094014, doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/9/094014, 2016.

2015

Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., van Beek, L. P. H., Bierkens, M. F. P., Bouwman, A., Jongman, B., … Ward, P. J. (2015). Global drivers of future river flood risk. Nature Climate Change, 6(4), 381–385. doi.org/10.1038/nclimate2893

Euser, T., Hrachowitz, M., Winsemius, H. C., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2015). The effect of forcing and landscape distribution on performance and consistency of model structures. Hydrological Processes, 29(17), 3727–3743. doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10445

Jongman, B., Winsemius, H. C., Aerts, J. C. J. H., Coughlan de Perez, E., van Aalst, M. K., Kron, W., & Ward, P. J. (2015). Declining vulnerability to river floods and the global benefits of adaptation. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 201414439. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1414439112

2014

Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Kummu, M., Dettinger, M. D., Sperna Weiland, F. C., & Winsemius, H. C. (2014). Strong influence of El Nino Southern Oscillation on flood risk around the world. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, 111(44), 15659–15664. doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1409822111

Winsemius, H. C., Dutra, E., Engelbrecht, F. A., Archer Van Garderen, E., Wetterhall, F., Pappenberger, F., & Werner, M. G. F. (2014). The potential value of seasonal forecasts in a changing climate in southern Africa. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(4), 1525–1538. doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-1525-2014

Bierkens, M. F. P., Bell, V. A., Burek, P., Chaney, N., Condon, L. E., David, C. H., … Wood, E. F. (2014). Hyper-resolution global hydrological modelling: what is next? “Everywhere and locally relevant.” Hydrological Processes, 29(2), n/a–n/a. doi.org/10.1002/hyp.10391

Schellekens, J., Brolsma, R. J., Dahm, R. J., Donchyts, G. V., & Winsemius, H. C. (2014). Rapid setup of hydrological and hydraulic models using OpenStreetMap and the SRTM derived digital elevation model. Environmental Modelling & Software, in press.

Wetterhall, F., Winsemius, H. C., Dutra, E., Werner, M., & Pappenberger, F. (2014). Seasonal predictions of agro-meteorological drought indicators for the Limpopo basin. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences Discussions, 11(1), 861–888. doi.org/10.5194/hessd-11-861-2014

Ehret, U., Gupta, H. V., Sivapalan, M., Weijs, S. V., Schymanski, S. J., Blöschl, G., … Winsemius, H. C. (2014). Advancing catchment hydrology to deal with predictions under change. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 18(2), 649–671. doi.org/10.5194/hess-18-649-2014

2013

Ward, P. J., Jongman, B., Weiland, F. S., Bouwman, A., van Beek, R., Bierkens, M. F. P., … Winsemius, H. C. (2013). Assessing flood risk at the global scale: model setup, results, and sensitivity. Environmental Research Letters, 8(4), 044019. doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/8/4/044019

Winsemius, H. C., Van Beek, L. P. H., Jongman, B., Ward, P. J., & Bouwman, A. (2013). A framework for global river flood risk assessments. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(5), 1871–1892. doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1871-2013

Yossef, N. C., Winsemius, H., Weerts, A., van Beek, R., & Bierkens, M. F. P. (2013). Skill of a global seasonal streamflow forecasting system, relative roles of initial conditions and meteorological forcing. Water Resources Research, 49(8), 4687–4699. doi.org/10.1002/wrcr.20350

Westerhoff, R. S., Kleuskens, M. P. H., Winsemius, H. C., Huizinga, H. J., Brakenridge, G. R., & Bishop, C. (2013). Automated global water mapping based on wide-swath orbital synthetic-aperture radar. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(2), 651–663. doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-651-2013

Euser, T., Winsemius, H. C., Hrachowitz, M., Fenicia, F., Uhlenbrook, S., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2013). A framework to assess the realism of model structures using hydrological signatures. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences, 17(5), 1893–1912. doi.org/10.5194/hess-17-1893-2013

Trambauer, P., Maskey, S., Winsemius, H., Werner, M., & Uhlenbrook, S. (2013). A review of continental scale hydrological models and their suitability for drought forecasting in (sub-Saharan) Africa. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth, Parts A/B/C, 66, 16–26. Retrieved from www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1474706513000879

Hrachowitz, M., Savenije, H. H. G., Blöschl, G., McDonnell, J. J., Sivapalan, M., Pomeroy, J. W., … Cudennec, C. (2013). A decade of Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB)—a review. Hydrological Sciences Journal, 58(6), 1198–1255. doi.org/10.1080/02626667.2013.803183

2006 - 2011

Weerts, A. H., Winsemius, H. C., & Verkade, J. S. (2011). Estimation of predictive hydrological uncertainty using quantile regression: examples from the National Flood Forecasting System (England and Wales). Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 15(1), 255–265. Retrieved from http://www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/15/255/2011/

Winsemius, H. C., Schaefli, B., Montanari, A., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2009). On the calibration of hydrological models in ungauged basins: A framework for integrating hard and soft hydrological information. Water Resources Research, 45, W12422. doi.org/200910.1029/2009WR007706

Fenicia, F., Savenije, H. H. G., & Winsemius, H. C. (2008). Moving from model calibration towards process understanding. Phys. Chem. Earth, 33, 1057–1060. doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2008.06.008

Winsemius, H. C., Savenije, H. H. G., & Bastiaanssen, W. G. M. (2008). Constraining model parameters on remotely sensed evaporation: justification for distribution in ungauged basins? Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 12(6), 1403–1413. Retrieved from www.hydrol-earth-syst-sci.net/12/1403/2008/

Hut, R., Ertsen, M., Joeman, N., Vergeer, N., Winsemius, H., & Van De Giesen, N. (2008). Effects of sand storage dams on groundwater levels with examples from Kenya. Physics and Chemistry of the Earth Parts ABC, 33(1-2), 56–66. doi.org/10.1016/j.pce.2007.04.006

Klees, R., Liu, X., Wittwer, T., Gunter, B., Revtova, E., Tenzer, R., … Savenije, H. (2008). A Comparison of Global and Regional GRACE Models for Land Hydrology. Surveys in Geophysics, 29(4), 335–359. doi.org/10.1007/s10712-008-9049-8

Klees, R., Revtova, E. A., Gunter, B. C., Ditmar, P., Oudman, E., Winsemius, H. C., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2008). The design of an optimal filter for monthly GRACE gravity models. Geophys. J. Int., 175(2), 417–432. doi.org/10.1111/j.1365-246X.2008.03922.x

Klees, R., Zapreeva, E. A., Winsemius, H. C., & Savenije, H. H. G. (2007). The bias in GRACE estimates of continental water storage variations. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 11, 1227–1241.

Klees, R., Zapreeva, E. A., Savenije, H. H. G., & Winsemius, H. C. (2006). Monthly mean water storage variations by the combination of GRACE and a regional hydrological model: application to the Zambezi River Basin. Proceedings Dynamic Planet 2005, “Monitoring and Understanding a Dynamic Planet with Geodetic and Oceanographic Tools.”

Winsemius, H. C., Savenije, H. H. G., Gerrits, A. M. J., Zapreeva, E. A., & Klees, R. (2006). Comparison of two model approaches in the Zambezi river basin with regard to model confidence and identifiability. Hydrol. Earth Syst. Sci., 10, 339–352.

Winsemius, H. C., Savenije, H. H. G., Giesen, N. C. Van de, Hurk, B. J. J. M. Van den, Zapreeva, E. A., & Klees, R. (2006). Assessment of Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) temporal signature over the upper Zambezi. Wat. Resour. Res., 42, W12201.

Hessel Winsemius

Associate Professor