EJ Seminar Archives
This the archive page for our ongoing seminar in expert judgment series.
Kevin Wilson: Probability elicitation for a future flooding scenario in the CReDo digital twin
Dmytro Perepolkin: Encoding and updating uncertain judgments using hybrid elicitation and quantile-parametrized distributions
Willy Aspinall: Estimating incredibly small event probabilities with expert judgement, Bayes Nets and Importance Sampling: present-day likelihood of a repeat super-eruption of Aso volcano, Japan.
Mark Burgman: A history and diagnosis of attempts to embed SEJ in government
Jim Smith : Reifying Probabilistic Digital Twins for Flooding Risk Assessments using Expert Judgement.
Oswaldo Morales Napoles : ANDURYL replacing EXCALIBUR