Graduation of Kate Happee

04 November 2019 15:00 - Location: Hall F, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences - By: Webredactie

"Modelling the influence of interannual climate variability on the sediment dynamics in Canal Emilio Mitre" | Professor of graduation: Prof. dr. ir. S.G.J. Aarninkhof, supervisors: Dr. ir. B.C. van Prooijen (TU Delft), dr. ir. C. J. Sloff (TU Delft, Deltares), dr. ir. M.D. Klein (Boskalis).

Canal Emilio Mitre is a continuously dredged navigation channel in the Rio de la Plata estuary in South America. It is specifically interesting for its high dredging volumes with high interannual variability which is correlated with El Nino. A conceptual model has been set-up identifying the main forcers of the sediment dynamics in the system. Additionally, the effect of climate change and variability on these forcings was assessed. Based on this knowledge a numerical model was set up in which the effect of climate variability due to mainly the El Nino phenomena was evaluated. Main conclusion for this project is that the model is able to predict the approximate spatial and temporal trend in sedimentation under the influence of climate variability. Also it showed that for this system climate variability has more effect than climate change on the sedimentation on a time scale of 10 years. Therefore for projects with a similar duration in areas affected by the teleconnections of the ENSO phenomena, taking into account the possible effects of climate variability in an early phase is essential. Using statistics on climate variability, understanding of the system and predictions on the ONI index are essential in the assessment of the risks and opportunities due to this variability.