P.H.A.J.M. (Pieter) van Gelder

Profile Pieter van Gelder is Professor of Safety Science at TU Delft. He is also head of the Safety and Security Science section and member of the MT of the Department of Values, Technology and Innovation. He is chairman of the ESRA Technical Committee on Natural Hazards (European Safety and Reliability Association) and Advisory Board member of TNO Defence, Safety and Security and ANVS (Authority on Nuclear Safety and Radiation Protection). He has published a large number of highly cited papers in the field of infrastructure safety. His background is in the statistical modelling of high impact low probability events and the consequent decision making processes, with applications to natural hazards and infrastructures. 

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Van Gelder’s research focuses on probability analysis (including data analytics, QRA, BBN, uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, safety chain (proaction, prevention, repression), fault tree -, event tree -, attack tree -, decision tree analysis, game theory, inspection strategies and – optimization, penetration testing, stakeholder analysis, risk norms, risk optimisation, risk compensation, accident investigation, forensic engineering, resilience – and vulnerability analysis). Furthermore, his interest is on modelling conflicting values (such as safety vs. security, privacy, economic costs, durability, etc). Finally, he studies the impact of new threats (incl. urbanization, ageing, budget cuts, climate change) on safety and security, as well as the impact of new technologies (robotics, remote sensing, digitization, social media, artificial intelligence) on safety and security.

  • WM0804TU Project work Safety Science
  • SPM9446 System Reliability in Quantitative Risk Assessment
  • MOOC regarding Responsible Innovation
  • MOOC regarding Risk and Safety in Society
  • MoSHE Risk Management
  • CIE4130 Probabilistic Design (partly)
  • An overview of quantitative risk measures for loss of life and economic damage
    SN Jonkman, P Van Gelder, JK Vrijling
    Journal of Hazardous Materials 99 (1), 1-30, 2003
  • Forecasting daily streamflow using hybrid ANN models
    W Wang, PH Van Gelder, JK Vrijling, J Ma
    Journal of Hydrology 324 (1), 383-399, 2006
  • Statistical methods for the risk based design of civil structures
    PHAJM van Gelder
    Delft University of Technology, Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, 2000
  • Societal risk and the concept of risk aversion
    JK Vrijling, P Van Gelder
    Advances in safety and reliability 1, 45-52, 1997
  • A framework for risk criteria for critical infrastructures: fundamentals and case studies in the Netherlands
    JHK Vrijling, PH Van Gelder, LHJ Goossens, HG Voortman, MD Pandey
    Journal of Risk Research 7 (6), 569-579, 2004
  • Regional frequency analysis of extreme wave heights: Trading space for time
    Coastal Engineering, 2001. An analysis of the valuation of a human life
    JK Vrijling, P Van Gelder 
    ESREL, 197-200, 2000
  • Data management of extreme marine and coastal hydro-meteorological events
    PH Van Gelder, CV Mai, W Wang, G Shams, M Rajabalinejad,
    Journal of hydraulic research 46 (S2), 191-210, 2008

More Publications


  • H2020 Safe10T (Safety of Transport Infrastructure on the TEN-T Network)
  • H2020 NARSIS (New Approach to Reactor Safety ImprovementS)
  • H2020 CYBECO (Supporting Cyberinsurance from a Behavioural Choice Perspective)
  • FP7 RAIN (Risk Analysis of Infrastructure Networks in response to extreme weather)
  • H2020 BRIGAID (Bridging the Gap Innovations in Disaster Resilience)
  • PEC (Post-Emergency, multi-hazard health risk assessment in Chemical disasters) 
  • Director of DSyS
  • Programme director of MoSHE

Pieter van Gelder

Full Professor

Values, Technology and Innovation

Safety and Security Science

Astrid Pinzger-van Staalduinen 

Research interests:
Responsible risk management

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