Noortje Vaissier

Modelling the risks of urban heat islands for the ageing society - Case study: The Hague

Heat islands in the urban environment are proven to have a negative effect on the health of vulnerable groups such as the elderly population. This study thus develops a heat-related elderly risk index (HERI) by combining and weighting various spatial and non-spatial datasets. Resulting from this are HERI maps in two configurations at different times throughout the day. The maps with their timestamps are validated by performing a Pearson Correlation between them and the mortality numbers among the elderly in the days after a chosen reference day. This examination shows that only the indicator of “75 and older” correlates with the mortality. However, when all indicators are combined into the HERI index maps a weak positive correlation with mortality can be observed. Concludingly, further research is needed to re-evaluate the chosen indicators and weighting methods in order to improve the HERI.

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