Prof. Dr. Ir. (Jan) Kwakkel


Jan Kwakkel is an associate professor. His research interest is model-based support for decision making under deep uncertainty. His research focuses on the developing and testing innovative model-based techniques for the design of dynamic adaptive policy pathways. Within this, he is particularly interested in how to bring moral considerations into the quantitative analysis. He has applied his research in a range of domains including climate adaptation, flood risk management, transport and logistics, resource economics, and national safety and security. He is the lead developer of an open source workbench for exploratory modeling, scenario discovery, and multi-objective robust optimization. Next to his research on decision making under deep uncertainty, Dr. Kwakkel also has an interested in text mining with a focus on analyzing scientific publications and patents.

  • Kwakkel, J.H., M. Haasnoot, & W.E. Walker. (2015). Developing Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A computer-assisted approach for developing adaptive strategies for a deeply uncertain world. Climatic Change. DOI: 10.1007/s10584-014-1210-4.
  • Haasnoot, M., Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., & ter Maat, J. (2013) Dynamic Adaptive Policy Pathways: A Method for Crafting Robust Decisions for a Deeply Uncertain World, Global Environmental Change. DOI: 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2012.12.006
  • Walker, W.E., Haasnoot, M. & Kwakkel, J.H. (2013) Adapt or Perish: A Review of Planning Approaches for Adaptation under Deep Uncertainty. Sustainability. vol 5, pp. 955-979. DOI: 10.3390/su5030955
  • Kwakkel, J.H. & Pruyt, E. (2013) Exploratory Modeling and Analysis, an approach for model-based foresight under deep uncertainty. Technological Forecasting and Social Change. vol. 80, no. 3, pp. 419-43. DOI: 10.1016/j.techfore.2012.10.005
  • Kwakkel, J.H., Walker, W.E., Marchau, V.A.W.J. (2010), Classifying and communicating uncertainties in model-based policy analysis. International Journal of Technology, Policy and Management, vol. 10, no. 4, pp. 299-315

More publications

  • How much climate adaptation is enough? Developing a theoretical framework and associated computational toolkit for proportionate adaptation. (January 2014 – December 2017)
    This project is funded through the VENI scheme of NWO. The aim of this project is to develop a comprehensive approach and set of model-based tools for supporting climate adaptation planning.
  • Model-Based Implementation of Adaptive Delta Management (December 2015 – November 2018)
    This project is part of the New Delta program of NWO. The aim of this project is to develop new concepts for supporting the monitoring of the implementation of adaptation pathways. It tries to combine model predictive control concepts with exploratory modelling concepts.
  • Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage Smart Grids (September 2014 - August 2017)
    This project is part of the Uncertainty Reduction in Smart Energy Systems program of NWO. It is a collaboration with CiTG (ir. Bloemendal and prof. Oltshoorn) and 3ME (Dr. Keviczky). The aim of the project is to improve the efficiency of Aquifer Thermal Energy systems. Their rapid adoption in the Netherlands is resulting in a tragedy of the commons. Model predictive control concepts and institutional arrangements are explored to overcome this. 

Prof. Dr. Ir. Jan Kwakkel


Multi-Actor Systems

Policy Analysis

Research interests:
Decision making under deep uncertainty
Exploratory modeling
Scenario discovery
Robust decision making
Adaptation pathways

Additional information

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