Volume 16, Issue 1

Table of Contents
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Editorial Board
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Special Issue: Data-driven innovations in policy-oriented freight transport models and planning methods

J. Gonzalez-Feliu, A. Goodchild and D. Guerrero
Editorial
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Abstract

Editorial: Data-driven innovations in policy-oriented freight transport models and planning methods

Jesus Gonzalez-Feliu*, Anne Goodchild**, David Guerrero***

  • *A: EVS PIESO, UMR 5600 CNRS, Institut Henri Fayol, Ecole des Mines de Saint-Etienne, 158 cours Fauriel, 42023 Saint-Etienne cedex 2, France
    T: +33 4 77 49 97 84
    F: +33 4 77 42 66 33
    E: jesus.gonzalez-feliu@emse.fr
  • **Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, 121E More Hall, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
    T: +01 206-543-3747
    F: +01 206543-1543
    E: annegood@u.washington.edu 
  • ***AME - SPLOTT, IFSTTAR, Bâtiment Bienvenüe, Plot B, 2ème étage, 14-20 Boulevard Newton, Cité Descartes, Champs sur Marne, 77447 Marne la Vallée Cedex 2, France
    T : +33 1 81 66 87 90
    E: david.guerrero@ifsttar.f

P. T. Aditjandra, F. Galatioto , M. C. Bell and T. H. Zunder
Evaluating the impacts of urban freight traffic: application of micro-simulation at a large establishment
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Abstract

Heavy Goods Vehicles, HGV, and Light Goods Vehicles, LGV, are a significant contributor to air pollution problems in urban areas. This paper quantifies the contribution to the environment of the deliveries to a single, large city employer addressing a research gap in the literature. Analysis of data from comprehensive surveys carried out over two years demonstrated that freight delivery traffic generated by an urban establishment with multiple properties in a compact urban setting, is characterised by a high proportion of LGV consistent with recent national and international trends. Also, despite freight traffic is only 10% of local traffic, more than 50% serves the single establishment, suggesting a different approach to policy making driven by the employer should be explored. The modelling results showed, relatively, the largest contribution to total emissions comes from HGVs in the AM peak, 13.8%, 43.7%, 9.2% for CO2, NOx and PM respectively. LGV contribute less, with 5.5%, 3.8%, 6% for CO2, NOx and PM respectively but more responsible for local congestion due to their numbers. This research is the first known study of its type and with the unique combination of measurement and traffic microsimulation allowed consideration of more effective traffic management strategies as well as providing evidence to support a consolidation centre for deliveries outside the city with fewer electric or low emissions last mile vehicles reducing substantially the environmental impact. The research outputs are relevant to many other similar cases in UK and Europe. The paper contributes to the ongoing development of research and policy looking to achieve sustainable urban logistics through receiver and purchasing led initiatives.

Keywords: city logistics, freight traffic, environmental impact, receiver-led initiative, transport policy

Paulus T. Aditjandra*, Fabio Galatioto**, Margaret C. Bell*** and Thomas H. Zunder****

  • *NewRail – Newcastle Centre for Railway Research, School of Mechanical and Systems Engineering, Newcastle University, Stephenson Building, Kensington Terrace, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
    E: paulus.aditjandra@ncl.ac.uk
  • **TORG - Transport Operations Research Group, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Devonshire Building, Devonshire Terrace, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
    E: fabio.galatioto@ncl.ac.uk
  • ***TORG - Transport Operations Research Group, School of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Newcastle University, Cassie Building, Kensington Terrace, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
    E: margaret.bell@ncl.ac.uk
  • ****NewRail – Newcastle Centre for Railway Research, School of Mechanical and Systems Engineering,Newcastle University, Stephenson Building, Kensington Terrace, Newcastle upon Tyne, NE1 7RU, UK
    E: tom.zunder@ncl.ac.uk

J. Muñuzuri, J. Guadix, P. Cortés and L. Onieva
Use of discrete choice to obtain urban freight evaluation data
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Abstract

The ex-ante evaluation of urban freight solutions is a complex task, due to the interference of different stakeholder groups with different views and objectives. The multi-actor multi-criteria methods have developed as a response to this scenario, but the determination of the weights required by them remains an unclear and controversial task. We propose the use of discrete choice methods as a powerful tool to confront these multi-faced evaluation problems, since the resulting surveys are flexible and easy to respond, and do not give away the final quantitative results. We have applied this methodology to the selection of urban freight solutions in the city of Seville, in Spain, followed by the determination of the relative weights associated to different objectives, both analyses carried out from the side of the carriers stakeholder group.

Keywords: city logistics, evaluation, MAMCA, discrete choice.

Jesús Muñuzuri*, José Guadix**, Pablo Cortés*** and Luis Onieva**** 

  • *School of Engineering, University of Seville, CM Descubrimientos, s/n, 41092 Seville, Spain 
    T: +34 954487205 
    F: +34 954487248
    E: munuzuri@us.es
  • **School of Engineering, University of Seville, CM Descubrimientos, s/n, 41092 Seville, Spain 
    T: +34 954487389 F: +34 954487248
    F: +34 954487248
    E: guadix@us.es
  • ***School of Engineering, University of Seville, CM Descubrimientos, s/n, 41092 Seville, Spain
    T: +34 954486153
    F: +34 954487248
    E: pca@us.es
  • ****School of Engineering, University of Seville, CM Descubrimientos, s/n, 41092 Seville, Spain
    T: +34 954486042
    F: +34 954487248
    E: onieva@us.es

F. Combes and L.A. Tavasszy
Inventory theory, mode choice and network structure in freight transport
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Abstract

In passenger transport, hub-and-spoke networks allow the transportation of small passengerflows with competitive frequencies, in a way that direct line networks cannot. Equivalently, infreight transport, it can be expected that small shipper-receiver flows of high added valuecommodities transit through hub and spoke networks, while larger shipper-receiver flows of lessexpensive commodities are transported directly, without transhipment. The objective of thispaper is first to present an analytical model, based on inventory theory, explaining how for agiven commodity flow, the organisation of freight transport operations is closely related to thecharacteristics of the shipper-receiver relationship; second to assess empirically this model.Special emphasis is put on the number of transhipments in the transport operation, as anindication of organisation of the transport operations.The theoretical model is a simplified microeconomic model, built on principles of inventorytheory. The empirical assessment of this model is based on the French shipment survey ECHO,which provides both the details of the transport operation and of the shipper-receiverrelationships. With this database, we first provide a straightforward, graphical verification of theprediction of the theoretical model; secondly, we estimate it econometrically.

Keywords: freight mode choice, shipper, shipper-receiver relationship, shipment, transhipments, inventory theory, discrete choice modelling.

François Combes* and Lóránt A. Tavasszy**

  • *Cerema, France, and IFSTTAR  
    A: 110 rue de Paris - BP 214 - 77487 Provins Cedex 
    T: +33 (0)1 60 52 31 31 
    E: francois.combes@cerema.fr 
  • **TNO and Delft University of Technology  
    A: Jaffalaan 5, 2628BX Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 (0) 152 786 343
    E: l.a.tavasszy@tudelft.nl 

P. J. Pérez-Martínez and R. M. Miranda
Sensitivity analysis of impact model for road freight by the increase in the use of larger trucks in Spain
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Abstract

This study develops an impact model for road freight transport and aims to analyse the sensitivity of the results to the model parameters. Scenarios are simulated to study the effect of this model on road freight transport operations. The model and the methodology are applied to the sampling data from the permanent road freight survey of the Spanish Ministry of Transport. According to the results, the optimum parameter values or ranges are recommended, and the assumptions involved in the impact estimates are justified. Finally, the model is also proposed to apply and extended to a large logistic network.
Estimates and projections presented in this study are based on the level of shift of goods for the larger trucks, the modal shift from the railway, and the elasticity demand for road freight transport as a result of lower transport operation costs. The results of this study show that, considering the effects of induced truck traffic and the shift of goods from rail to road, increasing the weight limits for trucks produces slight benefits.

Keywords: freight competition, mega trucks, modelling impacts, transport policies

Pedro J. Pérez-Martínez* and Regina M. Miranda**

  • *Institute of Astronomy, Geophysics and Atmospheric Sciences (IAG), University of São Paulo, Brazil.
    A: Matão 1226, 05508-090 São Paulo, Brazil
    T: +55 3091 4770
    E: pedroperezmartinez@me.com 
  • **School of Arts, Sciences and Humanities (EACH), University of São Paulo, São Paulo, Brazil
    A: Arlindo Béttio, 1000, 03828-000 São Paulo, Brazil
    T: +55 3091 1029
    E: rmaura@usp.br 

Z. Wang, A. V. Goodchild and E. McCormack
Freeway truck travel time prediction for freight planning using truck probe GPS data
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Abstract

Zun Wang*, Anne V. Goodchild** and Edward McCormack***

  • *University of Washington, United States.
    A: 121E More Hall, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
    T: +01 352-665-1286
    E: zunwang@uw.edu 
  • **Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, United States.
    A: 121E More Hall, Box 352700, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
    T: +01 206-543-3747 F: +01 206543-1543
    E: annegood@uw.edu 
     
  • ***Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, United States
    A: 121C, More Hall, University of Washington, Seattle, United States
    T: +01 206-543-3348
    E: edm@uw.edu 

Special Issue: Climate Adaptation of Infrastructure Networks

L. Tavasszy, L.A. Bollinger and G.P.J. Dijkema
Editorial: Special Issue on Climate Adaptation of Infrastructure Networks
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Abstract

Editorial: Special Issue on Climate Adaptation of Infrastructure Networks

 Lori Tavasszy*, L. Andrew Bollinger** and Gerard P.J. Dijkema***

  • * Delft University of Technology, Netherlands; TNO, Netherlands
    A1: TU Delft, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, Netherlands
    A2: TNO, van Mourikbroekmanweg 6, 2628 XE, Delft, Netherlands
    E: L.A.Tavasszy@tudelft.nl 
  • **Empa, Switzerland; Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
    A1: Empa, Ueberlandstrasse 129, 8600 Duebendorf, Switzerland
    A2: TU Delft, Mekelweg 2, 2628 CD Delft, Netherlands
  • ***University of Groningen, Netherlands
    A: University of Groningen, ESRIG, Nijenborgh 4, 9747 AG Groningen, Netherlands

E. Huibregtse, O. Morales Napoles, L. Hellebrandt, D. Paprotny and S. de Wit
Climate change in asset management of infrastructure: A risk-based methodology applied to disruption of traffic on road networks due to the flooding of tunnels
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Abstract

This paper presents a risk-based method to quantify climate change effects on road infrastructure, as a support for decision-making on interventions. This can be implemented in climate adaptation plans as an element of asset management. The method is illustrated by a specific case in which traffic on a road network is disrupted by the flooding of a tunnel due to extreme rainfall. Novel techniques to describe both probability of occurrence and consequences of an event are integrated into the proposed risk-based approach. To model a typical climate-change related phenomenon, i.e. rainfall intensity-duration, a model using copulas is proposed as well as a method to account for uncertainty using structured expert judgement. To quantify the consequences, an existing quick scan tool is adopted. The method calculates the risk of flooding of a tunnel, expressed in both probability of occurrence and subsequent additional travel duration on the road network. By comparison of this evolving risk to a societally acceptable threshold, the remaining resilience of the tunnel is evaluated. Furthermore, the method assesses the development of the resilience over time as a result of projected climate change. The maximum time-to-intervention is defined as the period up until the moment when the resilience is depleted. By application of the method to a tunnel in two different contexts, i.e. in a regional road network and a highway network, it is shown that the consequences of tunnel flooding may differ by an order of magnitude (25-fold for the example). Using a risk-based decision-making perspective leads to significant differences in the maximum time-to-intervention. In the example case the year of intervention is determined at 2020 for a tunnel in a highway network, while interventions can be postponed until 2140 in a regional road network.

Keywords: climate change, infrastructure, asset management, risk-based design, probabilistic modelling, structured expert judgement.

Elja Huibregtse*, Oswaldo Morales Napoles**, Laura Hellebrandt***, Dominik Paprotny**** and Sten de Wit*****

  • *TNO, Delft, The Netherlands.
    A: Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628 XE Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 0 888662284
    E: elja.huibregtse@tno.nl 
  • **Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
    A: Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 0 15 2785476
    E: o.moralesnapoles@tudelft.nl 
  • ***TNO, Delft, The Netherlands.
    A: Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628 XE Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 0 888663783
    E: laura.hellebrandt@tno.nl 
  • ****Faculty of Civil Engineering and Geosciences, Delft University of Technology, Delft, The Netherlands.
    A: Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 0 152782610
    E: d.paprotny@tudelft.nl 
  • *****TNO, Delft, The Netherlands
    A: Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628 XE Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 0 888663234
    E: sten.dewit@tno.nl. 

M. Diakakis, E. Lekkas, I. Stamos, and E. Mitsakis
Vulnerability of transport infrastructure to extreme weather events in small rural catchments
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Abstract

Across the Mediterranean region, extreme weather events (EWE), such as high-intensity storms causing flooding in small river basins, are one of the most common types of hydrometeorological hazards. Flooding has been associated with severe effects on road networks and a significant number of vehicle-related fatalities, raising concerns regarding the performance of transportation infrastructure during EWEs. Given the expected increase in frequency of such events within the context of climate change, an assessment of its vulnerability is particularly crucial. The work presented herein evaluates the performance of transportation infrastructure during high-intensity storms. This research focuses on small rural catchments, examining the impact of five extreme storm events in five rural basins in Greece. Post-flood surveys were conducted, to record the impact of inundation on each infrastructure element in the five catchments. Overall, findings showed that road infrastructure, especially river crossings, performed poorly, restricting access to large areas during and after the events, affecting the safety of commuters and sustaining extensive damages. On average, it was found that 73% of the river crossings and 11.5% of the total length of the road network were inundated or damaged, while a total of 12 individuals died during the events. The results revealed that the impact of flooding in the transportation infrastructure of small rural basins was severe and a threat to human life. The findings of this study indicate that authorities should consider taking measures during EWEs, reexamine the safety features of the relevant infrastructure and assess the risk related to its failure.

Keywords: flash floods, extreme weather events, climate change, transportation infrastructure, vehicle accidents

Michalis Diakakis*, Efthymis Lekkas**, Iraklis Stamos*** and Evangelos Mitsakis****

  • *Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, School of Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece.
    A: Panepistimioupoli, 15784 Athens, Greece
    T: +30 210 7274 669
    F: +30 210 7274 096
    E: diakakism@geol.uoa.gr 
  • **Faculty of Geology and Geoenvironment, School of Sciences, National and Kapodistrian University of Athens, Greece.
    A: Panepistimioupoli, 15784 Athens, Greece
    T: +30 210 7274 410
    F: +30 210 7274 096
    E: diakakism@geol.uoa.gr 
  • ***Centre for Research and Technology Hellas – Hellenic Institute of Transport, Greece.
    A: 6th km Charilaou-Thermis rd., 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
    T: +30 2310 468 268
    F: +30 2310 498 269
    E: stamos@certh.gr 
  • ****Centre for Research and Technology Hellas – Hellenic Institute of Transport, Greece.
    A: 6th km Charilaou-Thermis rd., 57001 Thessaloniki, Greece
    T: +30 2310 468 459
    F: +30 2310 498 269
    E: emit@certh.gr 

M. Snelder and S. Calvert
Quantifying the impact of adverse weather conditions on road network performance
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Abstract

Adverse weather conditions regularly lead to severe congestion and large travel time delays on road networks all over the world. Different climate scenarios indicate that in the future adverse weather conditions are likely to become more frequent, last longer and will be more extreme. Although climate mitigation measures are being taken, it remains important to investigate how adverse weather events will affect the performance of the road network in the future. The main objective of this paper is to give an overview of how the impact of adverse weather conditions and adaptation measures on road network performance can be quantified. A literature review has been performed to show what is empirically known about the impact of adverse weather conditions on the road network performance. Furthermore, available methods to quantify the impact of adverse weather conditions and adaptation measures on the road network performance for future situations are reviewed. As an example, a case study for the municipality of Rotterdam has been carried out that shows how a combination of models can be used to analyse which links in the road network are most vulnerable for increasingly severe local weather related disturbances. The results of the case study allow local authorities to decide whether or not they need to take adaptation measures.

Keywords: weather disturbances, extreme weather, climate change, road network, vulnerable locations

Maaike Snelder* and Simeon Calvert**

 

  • *TNO and Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands.
    A: Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628XE Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 8886 68522
    E: maaike.snelder@tno.nl 
  • **TNO and Delft University of Technology, the Netherlands
    A: Van Mourik Broekmanweg 6, 2628XE Delft, The Netherlands
    F: +31 8886 63314
    E: simeon.calvert@tno.nl 

K. Pilli-Sihvola , V. Nurmi , A. Perrels , A. Harjanne, P. Bösch and F. Ciari
Innovations in weather services as a crucial building block for climate change adaptation in road transport
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Abstract

The road transport sector is facing rising uncertainties in planning and operations due to climate change induced changes in weather variability and extreme events. However, because of the high level of uncertainty related to the future climate, adaptation measures should be robust so as to retain the option value of the portfolio of measures. As an example of such a measure, this paper evaluates how foreseen innovations in weather services could reduce weather sensitivity and, consequently reduce the negative effects of climate change in the sector. The study is based on a theoretical framework on climate change adaptation and valuation of weather and climate services using the Weather Service Chain Analysis. We apply these frameworks to the road transport sector with a special emphasis on drivers’ decision making before and during a trip. We show that improved weather information, including more accurate weather forecasts, new applications and information dissemination channels can decrease the vulnerability of the mode to projected shifts in extreme weather patterns due to climate change.

Keywords: Adaptation, Climate Change, Information, Innovation, Road transport, Weather Service

Karoliina Pilli-Sihvola*, Väinö Nurmi**, Adriaan Perrels***, Atte Harjanne****, Patrick Bösch*****, Francesco Ciari******

  • *Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    P.O. BOX 503, FI-00101 Helsinki
    T: +358 50 309 4660,  F: +358 29 539 3146
    E: Karoliina.pilli-sihvola@fmi.fi 
  • **Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    P.O. BOX 503, FI-00101 Helsinki
    T +358 50 407 1436,  F: +358 29 539 3146
    E: vaino.nurmi@fmi.fi 
  • ***Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    P.O. BOX 503, FI-00101 Helsinki
    T: +358 50 583 8575, F: +358 29 539 3146
    E: adriaan.perrels@fmi.fi 
  • ****Finnish Meteorological Institute, Helsinki, Finland.
    P.O. BOX 503, FI-00101 Helsinki
    T: +358 50 373 1841, F: +358 29 539 3146
    E: atte.harjanne@fmi.fi 
  • *****Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
    Stefano Franscini Platz, 5, Zurich
    T: +41 44 63339 52,  F: +41 44 6331057
    E: patrick.boesch@ivt.baug.ethz.ch 
  • ******Swiss Federal Institute of Technology - ETH, Zurich, Switzerland
    Stefano Franscini Platz, 5, Zurich
    T: +41 44 6337165,   F: +41 44 6331057
    E: ciari@ivt.baug.ethz.ch 

R. Pant, J.W. Hall and S.P. Blainey
Vulnerability assessment framework for interdependent critical infrastructures: case-study for Great Britain’s rail network
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Abstract

Critical infrastructures vulnerability assessment involves understanding various sociotechnological aspects of modern day infrastructures. While vulnerabilities exist at different scales, failures of large-scale installations in infrastructures are significant because they lead towards widespread social and economic disruptions. There is growing awareness of the multiple potential causes of failure, including those due to dependence upon other infrastructures. This paper establishes a framework for national analysis of vulnerability of interdependent infrastructures. We present: (i) A mathematical formulation of the vulnerability assessment; (ii) Network models for infrastructures that take in account the geographic, physical and operational characteristics of connecting nodes and edges; (iii) Interdependency mapping models that establish relationships between different subsystems within and across infrastructures; and (iv) Methods for implementing failure and disruption calculations. The methodology is demonstrated for Great Britain’s railway infrastructure, for which we have built detailed interdependency mappings between critical assets and infrastructures that support railway operations. Two key vulnerability assessment results, produced to examine failure impacts of such assets on railway passenger trip flows, include: (i) Random failure outcomes; and (ii) Flood vulnerability outcomes. The results show which critical infrastructure interdependencies potentially have large impacts on railway operations, providing a useful analysis tool for further risk and adaptation planning.

Keywords: critical infrastructures, interdependencies, vulnerability assessment, railway networks, transport disruptions

Raghav Pant*, Jim W. Hall** and Simon P. Blainey***

  • *Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
    A: South Parks Road, OX1 3QY Oxford, United Kingdom
    T: +44 1865 275 853
    E: raghav.pant@ouce.ox.ac.uk 
  • Environmental Change Institute, University of Oxford, United Kingdom.
    A: South Parks Road, OX1 3QY Oxford, United Kingdom
    T: +44 1865 275 846
    E: jim.hall@eci.ox.ac.uk 
  • Faculty of Engineering and Environment, University of Southampton, United Kingdom.
    A: Burgess Road, SO16 7QF Southampton, United Kingdom
    T: +44 23 8059 2834
    E: s.p.blainey@soton.ac.uk 

P. Chhetri , G.B. Jayatilleke , V.O. Gekara , A. Manzoni and B. Corbitt
Container terminal operations simulator (CTOS) – Simulating the impact of extreme weather events on port operation
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Abstract

This paper develops a methodology to design a Container Terminal Operation Simulation (CTOS), which simulates the vulnerability of port operations to extreme weather events. In CTOS, an agent based model was built for a container terminal at the Port of Sydney to simulate the operations of port operational assets such as cranes, straddle carriers and trucks to observe the individual and collective behaviour under various extreme weather events using a set of Key Performance Indicators (e.g. crane rates, straddle productivity, truck queue length, yard utilisation). The CTOS results show that the crane throughput loss due to six hours of heavy rain and six hours of high speed wind (separately) is 13 per cent within a 24 hour period. While high speed wind and heavy rain have the highest impact on the crane throughput, high speed wind and flooding in the port area leads to a backlog in servicing trucks. Using a single terminal for the purpose of the simulation, as opposed to the entire Sydney Port, is a limitation. However, the CTOS is designed and coded in a manner that permits its modification such that it can be applied to other port contexts. CTOS offers a versatile tool for port authority to enable estimating performance implications of extreme weather-related disruptions to port operations. CTOS provides an effective proof of concept prototype where the system architecture can be reused in developing an open generic port operations model.

Keywords: Port operations, extreme weather events, climate change, port performance, agent based simulation.

Prem Chhetri*, Gaya B. Jayatilleke**, Victor O. Gekara***, Alex Manzoni**** and Brian Corbitt*****

  • School of Business IT and Logistics, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
    T: +61 3 99251392,  F: +61 399255624
    E: prem.chhetri@rmit.edu.au 
  • School of Business IT and Logistics, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
    T: +61 3 99251392,  F: +61 399255624
    E: buddhinath@gmail.com 
  • School of Business IT and Logistics, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
    T: +61 3 99251392,  F: +61 399255555
    E: Victor.gekara@rmit.edu.au 
  • School of Business IT and Logistics, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
    T: +61 3 99251392,  F: +61 399255624
    E: Alex.manzoni@rmit.edu.au 
  • School of Business IT and Logistics, RMIT University, Melbourne, Australia
    T: +61 3 99251392,  F: +61 399255624
    E: Brian.corbitt@rmit.edu.au 

 

 

 

L.A. Bollinger and G.P.J. Dijkema
Evaluating infrastructure resilience to extreme weather – the case of the Dutch electricity transmission network
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Abstract

This paper reports the development and results of a model exploring the resilience of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure to extreme weather events. Climate change is anticipated to result in an increase in the frequency and severity of extreme weather events over the coming decades. Situated in a low-lying coastal delta, the Netherlands may be particularly exposed to certain types of extreme weather(-induced) events. The degree to which the country’s electricity network may prove resilient in the face of these future events is an open question. The model focuses on two types of extreme events – floods and heat waves – and assesses two types of adaptation measures – substation flood protections and demand-side management. The model employs a network-based approach in assessing infrastructure resilience – explicitly representing the structure and properties of the Dutch transmission infrastructure – and extends previous work by accounting for key power system characteristics such as capacity constraints and cascading failures. From a practice perspective, the results offer a first indication of the vulnerability of the Dutch electricity transmission infrastructure in the context of climate change. These results suggest that the network displays some vulnerability to both floods and heat waves. Both types of adaptation measures tested are found to enhance resilience, though substation flood protection shows greater benefits. Whilst the model was specifically developed for the study of electricity networks, we anticipate that this method may also be applicable to other types of transport infrastructures.

Keywords: climate change, electricity, extreme weather, modelling, network, resilience

L. Andrew Bollinger* and Gerard P.J. Dijkema**

  • *Urban Energy Systems Laboratory, Empa, Switzerland & Faculty of Technology, Policy & Management, Delft University of Technology, The Netherlands
    A: Uberlandstrasse 129, 8600 D ¨ ubendorf, Switzerland
    T: ¨ +41587656183
    E: andrew.bollinger@empa.ch 
  • **Energy and Sustainability Research Institute Groningen, University of Groningen, The Netherlands
    A: Nijenborgh 4, 9747AG Groningen, The Netherlands
    T: +31503639825
    E: g.p.j.dijkema@rug.nl 

B.A. Wols and P. van Thienen
Impact of climate on pipe failure: predictions of failures for drinking water distribution systems
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Abstract

The integrity of drinking water distribution systems (DWDS) may be influenced by climate change. Using the statistical relations between failure frequencies and weather conditions described in our previous work (Wols & Van Thienen 2014a), a methodology is proposed to assess the effect of climate change on future DWDSs. The effect of climate change is combined with the evolution of the DWDS. This analysis can be conducted for any DWDS, for which historical failure registrations and weather parameters are available. The proposed methodology can therefore assist in the construction and maintenance planning of DWDSs. The methodology has been worked out for the Dutch drinking water distribution network. The results show that failures in networks with high AC proportions will increase as a result of expected climate change in the Netherlands, whereas failures in networks with high PVC and GCI proportions will even slightly reduce.

Keywords: Climate change, Pipe failure, Drinking water distribution systems, Failure database

B.A. Wols* and  P. van Thienen**

  • *KWR Watercycle Research Institute, Netherlands.Groningenhaven 7, 3430BB Nieuwegein, The Netherlands,
    T: +31306069604,
    E: bas.wols@kwrwater.nl 
  • **KWR Watercycle Research Institute, NetherlandsGroningenhaven 7, 3430BB Nieuwegein, The Netherlands,
    E: peter.van.thienen@kwrwater.nl. 

S. Bhamidipati, T. van der Lei and P. Herder
A layered approach to model interconnected infrastructure and its significance for asset management
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Abstract

Physical infrastructures facilitate much of societal and economic wellbeing of countries, regions and urban areas. In our increasingly urbanizing world, infrastructures in urban areas are densely located and interconnected. The effects of this interconnectedness are being studied increasingly, particularly in light of climate change effects. In this paper, we develop an agent-based simulation model that allows us to study interconnected infrastructure. We present a layered approach that is analogous to GIS overlay approaches, which allows us to integrate representations of different infrastructures. We explore how this approach can help asset managers to gain insights in interconnected infrastructure by estimating their total damage and repair requirements during a flood event. The results show a difference in these estimates, when compared to non-integrated models, highlighting the need for asset managers to consider interconnectedness in infrastructure.

Keywords: asset management, interconnectedness, climate change, agent-based modelling

Srirama Bhamidipati*, Telli van der Lei** and Paulien Herder***

  • *Energy and Industry, TBM, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    A: Jaffalaan 5, 2628BX Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 152 788 546,   F: +31 152 782 051
    E: s.k.bhamidipati@tudelft.nl 
  • **Energy and Industry, TBM, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    A: Jaffalaan 5, 2628BX Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 152 788 546,   F: +31 152 782 497
    E: t.e.vanderlei@tudelft.nl 
  • ***Energy and Industry, TBM, Delft University of Technology, Netherlands.
    A: Jaffalaan 5, 2628BX Delft, The Netherlands
    T: +31 152 788 546,   F: +31 152 782 497
    E: p.m.herder@tudelft.nl 

T. Schenk, R.A.L. Vogel, N. Maas and L.A. Tavasszy
Joint Fact-Finding in Practice: Review of a Collaborative Approach to Climate-Ready Infrastructure in Rotterdam
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Abstract

Joint fact-finding has been advanced as a method for helping stakeholders grappling with technically intensive policy and planning challenges to collaboratively engage in research and arrive at shared sets of facts to inform their decision-making. This paper introduces joint factfinding and considers its application in the context of infrastructure stakeholders aiming to assess and increase the resilience of their infrastructure systems to climate change. A set of evaluative criteria is introduced, which are proposed for assessing joint fact finding processes both procedurally and substantively in terms of the outcomes, considering them to be both arenas for collaborative governance and joint knowledge production efforts. These criteria are applied to a case in Rotterdam, the Netherlands. This case suggests that joint fact-finding can provide value, but also reveals some lessons. For the efforts themselves, these lessons relate to: The practical applicability of the outcomes; the inherently contingent nature of the outcomes when addressing wicked problems; questions of representation from stakeholder groups; and the importance of leadership and good process design. The following observations are made regarding the criteria: While they are typically interdependent, both process and outcomes should be evaluated; and more attention should be paid to the method and metrics of evaluation, while recognizing that there is no single formula or approach that can be applied, given the heterogeneity of the criteria.

Keywords: climate adaptation, collaborative planning, infrastructure, joint fact-finding, joint knowledge production, Rotterdam

Todd Schenk*, Ruben A.L. Vogel**, Nienke Maas** and Lóránt A. Tavasszy***

  • *Virginia Tech, United States
    SPIA, Architecture Annex (0113), 140 Otey Street NW, Blacksburg, VA 24061, United States 
    E: tschenk@vt.edu 
  • **TNO, Netherlands
     van Mourikbroekmanweg 6, 2628 XE, Delft, the Netherlands
  • ***TNO, Netherlands;  Delft University of Technology, Netherlands
    TNO, van Mourikbroekmanweg 6, 2628 XE, Delft, the Netherlands
    TUD, Stevinweg 1, 2628 CN, Delft, the Netherlands