Investigation of the Impacts of Climate Variability and Land Use Changes on the Hydrology of the Geul River Catchment

The Geul river, a tributary of the Meuse located in the south Netherlands, Belgium, and part of Germany, is vulnerable to extreme hydrological events, such as floods, droughts, and erosion. There is evidence that these conditions are exacerbated by land use and climate changes. This thesis focuses on investigating the temporal variability and trends of hydrometeorological variables, as well as the main land use changes in the Geul river catchment. Accordingly, this thesis aims to improve understanding of the impacts of climate change and human intervention on the hydrological response of the Geul. In the first part of the thesis, temporal changes in (extreme) precipitation regimes for the period 1951-2021 and potential evaporation for the period 1965-2021, are identified by calculating trends for each 30-year moving period within the available time frames. The main land use changes are evaluated using CORINE annual land cover maps for the period 1990-2018. Changes in discharge regimes are investigated using a multi-temporal approach in which trends are evaluated in every possible combination of start and end years. In the second part of the thesis, the effects of climate variability and land use changes on the variability of runoff patterns are assessed. This is achieved by correlating the rates of change between extreme precipitation and maximum discharges all over the moving periods. The work also includes the use of a water balance separation framework to estimate the attribution of alterations in mean stream flows to land use and climate changes. A statistically significant increase in very wet days is reported in the area that mainly derives from the winter period. The extreme summer precipitation shows a relatively strong increase since the 1980s. The trend analysis in the potential evaporation time series suggests a very strong and stable increase. The main land use changes dominated before the 1970s, while there do not appear to be significant changes in the catchment from 1990 to 2018. Extreme annual discharges show an increasing insignificant tendency, while mean stream flows are decreasing. Results suggest that the variability of extreme and mean flows is mainly driven by climate variability, while at the same time the effects of land use changes on runoff patterns are not visible for the period 1970-2021. This study emphasizes that climate change should be incorporated into flood designs and climate adaptation strategies should be provided.

The final report can be downloaded here.