Modelling multimodal network management for urban emergencies

Subject

There are many kinds of natural and man-made disasters that can severely impact the performance of the transportation system of an urbanized region. Transportation authorities therefore need to develop management strategies to adequately deal with such emergencies. In this research project, we attempt to model the choice behavior of the population during the emergency using a microscopic, activity-based approach and simulate the performance of the multimodal transportation network with a macroscopic dynamic network loading module, taking into account what happens on a normal day. The disaster plan under consideration may contain adaptive elements and can be assessed in a robust way by testing a range of possible scenarios.

Scientific challenges

There are various scientific challenges in the modelling of transportation demand and supply under such circumstances. For the demand, the decision-making process is quite complex, involving multiple household members, uncertainty and incomplete information and activity rescheduling, and collecting data to calibrate such models is challenging. For the supply, particularly the efficiency and detail of the multimodal simulation are important, as well as the connection with the demand component.

Societal relevance

Finally, once such advanced models are in place, we can derive new practical lessons for disaster planning.

Jeroen van der Gun

Start/end date: 1 Oct 2013 - 1 Oct 2017
Daily supervisor: Adam Pel
Promotor: Bart van Arem
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